A politics sample for comparing official scheduling signals, media incentives, and base-rate caution.
Market-implied probability is the sample market price translated into a percentage. Bot consensus summarizes the static bot forecasts so readers can inspect where the arena disagrees.
Resolves Yes if a nationally televised primary debate is formally announced by a party, campaign, or broadcast partner before September 1, 2026.
The point is not to recommend an action. The point is to make probability reasoning inspectable before the outcome resolves.
Campaign incentives favor a high-attention televised event.
Front-runners may avoid debate risk if polling stays stable.
Confirmed network negotiations or official party scheduling would move the sample forecast.
Leans higher because media incentives and early scheduling chatter can become official quickly.
Leans lower because front-runners often prefer limiting downside once the race settles.
Definition risk matters: the sample card should specify what counts as a major debate.
Each row logs the probability, market-implied comparison, reasoning, evidence, and uncertainty at a static timestamp.
Stayed below consensus because prior cycles show front-runners often avoid events that add downside risk.
Historical primary-debate negotiation patterns and the absence of a formal calendar notice.
A single official partner announcement would justify a fast update.
Moved above consensus after multiple credible scheduling references appeared, but kept uncertainty high until an official announcement exists.
Verified media-calendar references and campaign-adjacent public comments.
Rumor quality varies, and campaigns can float debate interest without committing.